"cotton market does not support the rise in cotton prices, production costs upside down", "this season is not prosperous, the market is watching and waiting", in the face of this year's cotton prices continue to rise in the market environment, a number of textile industry told reporters.
have the personage inside course of study to say, at present the enterprise relies on stockpiling cotton to produce more, those who do not have inventory has to stop wait and see. take henan, the country's second-largest province by yarn output, for example, which may be only half full in the autumn and peak seasons. analysts believe the high price of new cotton is related to this year's sharply shrinking cotton acreage, which is expected to ease next year.
the price of new cotton exceeds 16,000 yuan/ton
on september 30, the sale of state cotton stocks ended, and new cotton became an important source of continuous production for textile enterprises. in cotton futures prices continue to high, the state reserves of cotton has been repeatedly snapped up the background, xinjiang new cotton high prices to attack.
"during the national day holiday, xinjiang cotton prices soared, leading to a rise in the entire cotton market. at present, xinjiang hand-picked lint quotation has exceeded 16,000 yuan/ton, xinjiang machine-picked cotton quotation has reached 15,500 yuan/ton. li jifeng, secretary general of henan textile industry association, revealed that after the replacement of old and new cotton, the cost of cotton for textile enterprises increased by more than 2,000 yuan/ton compared with august. although traders still have state cotton stockpiles, prices have soared to 15, 800 yuan a ton. at present, the upstream cotton price is rising, the downstream demand is not strong, cotton yarn enterprises sandwiched in it, in the face of great production pressure.
as of october 9, the purchase price of seed cotton in southern xinjiang was about 7.60 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price was 8.00 yuan/kg in kuqa, yuli and other places of aksu. driven by the xinjiang cotton price, during the national day holiday, the price of seed cotton in the yellow river basin also reached 7.30 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from before the festival.
"this year, the cotton planting area has shrunk significantly. in addition, factors such as the end of the cotton reserve round and the recent rapid rise in zheng cotton futures have all led to the recent rise in cotton prices." zheng bo, an analyst with zhuochuang cotton, said cotton prices were at a low point when a large number of new cotton products were launched in early october. after the beginning of this year, cotton prices began to pull up sharply. therefore, cotton farmers have the psychology of late sale price is high, early sale loss reluctance to sell, cotton price psychological expectations are high. in addition, although this year's selling storage period extended, but the reserve round turnover rate at the end of september has been as high as 100 percent, which shows that textile companies, traders on the supply of future cotton is also a widespread concern.
it is understood that this year's southern xinjiang region rainy, windy, xinjiang korla region recently suffered hail disaster, which has affected the growth of cotton, machine picking cotton, hand-picked cotton market than in previous years delayed 7 to 10 days. after cotton reserve ends, market cotton supply appeared brief "empty window period". the national meteorological center recently predicted that the total cotton output this year will be 5.096 million tons, down 9.1 percent.
"this year, foreign cotton production is high and prices are down. if this gap between the internal and external prices continues, imported yarn is bound to have an impact on china's cotton yarn market. li jifeng believes that at present most textile enterprises fear to buy high cotton, are waiting and waiting for prices to fall.
cotton spinning industry season is not prosperous
gold 9 silver 10, the weather turns cool, it is the cotton spinning enterprise prosperous start work, production and marketing flourishing season. but this autumn, when cotton prices were high, zhu minfeng, head of henan xiaopeng cotton industry co., ltd., was not optimistic about the market.
"at present, xinye area in nanyang, henan province is the hardest hit area, and the operating rate may only be about 20 percent. in shangqiu xiayi county, the general rate of textile enterprises is only 50 percent. mr zhu says his textile factory is one of the few in his neighbourhood to have started full capacity, and that it is the "grain reserve" he keeps in warehouses when cotton prices are low that supports his production.
"at the current price of cotton, textile enterprises have no profit, or even upside down costs, who dare to buy cotton production?" the person in charge of spinning enterprise reveals, if 16 thousand yuan/ton price of xinjiang cotton now, add loss rate, charge of electricity and labor cost 5800 yuan/ton convert, the cost that produces cotton yarn of a ton of general comb 40s already amounted to 242 thousand yuan/ton. at present, the market price of 40s is about 23,000 yuan/ton and the cost is 1200 yuan/ton upside-down.
zhu minfeng reflects, although cotton price cost rises, but because downstream cloth enterprise demand does not support, spinning enterprises in this year's prices can only rise 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton, completely unable to make up for the soaring costs of profit losses. today, textile enterprises are the hands of how much cotton spinning how many yarn state, do not dare to start. although mr zhu has enough cotton to last until november, some of his peers have only a few days' supply. nevertheless, xinjiang's new cotton trading volume is still at a low level, more inquiries, buy less auction, we are watching.
zheng bo also said that according to zhuo chuang data statistics, the current cotton market is in a state of price without market. in this year's cotton prices rose significantly, the jiangsu and zhejiang region's medium-sized enterprises above the size of the early auction of state cotton storage, cotton storage enterprises may be able to support november. henan and other inland provinces rely on jiangsu and zhejiang regions for sales, and the production and sales environment is not good, so it is difficult to survive in the high cotton price environment.
this year, raw materials, labor and other costs of the rise, has made the profit of the meager textile industry has been a serious impact. according to statistics from the national bureau of statistics, as of june 2016, there were 19937 textile enterprises with operating income of over 20 million yuan, 2,547 less than the 22,484 enterprises in 2011. in the first half of 2016, the net profit of listed spinning enterprises also continued the downward trend of the previous three years, with the net profit dropping by more than 10% year on year.
industry calls for double track cotton supply system
cotton price trend closely affects the textile enterprises. previously, nearly 150 cotton textile enterprises in hubei, shandong, hebei, zhejiang, guangdong and other places have reported the problems of cotton reserve release to the china cotton textile industry association by telephone, joint letters and other forms. state authorities have raised the daily volume of cotton reserves to 30,000 tons, and extended the sale, which was scheduled to end on august 31, to september 30. august, september, cotton prices have appeared callback.
"tun cotton is like a stock market, buy high is a loss." zhu minfeng regrets that the cotton market is greatly affected by news and policies, and as a commodity, it is often hyped by traders. the price of cotton fluctuates between high and low, and textile companies are deeply affected. at present, the textile industry calls for increasing the amount of cotton stored by the state and adding new cotton to the market at the same time, forming a two-track system to solve the situation of high cotton prices.
but for this statement, zheng bo thinks the feasibility is not high. she said that although the state reserves of cotton still have 7 million tons of inventory, but if a large number of them are put into the market, it will cause a sharp drop in cotton prices and harm the interests of cotton farmers. only when cotton prices are stable can spinning enterprises develop healthily. she said that because corn prices plummeted this year, and cotton profits are higher, next year's domestic cotton acreage will expand, will drive cotton prices down.